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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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