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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this series will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is rare to have nearly all player in a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.